The expectations for the EU-China summit are so low that officials in Brussels claim as a victory the fact that it is happening at all.
Another recurring grievance among Europeans is the regulatory barriers that China has erected to encroach upon the private sector and give preference to domestic companies. The row recently led the Commission to exclude Chinese providers of medical devices from European public tenders. Beijing retaliated with a similar ban.
Initially, the July summit was considered the stage to reach a common understanding on these open fronts and announce tentative solutions to some of them. While the disputes will still be addressed as part of the busy agenda, the rise in tensions indicates they will remain unresolved as neither side believes the other is ready to relent.
The only deliverable that von der Leyen and Costa can reasonably hope for is a joint declaration on climate action ahead of the UN climate conference later this year. Substantial concessions in other fields are improbable, warns Alicja Bachulska, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).
“Beijing appears confident that time is on its side,” Bachulska said.
“China’s strategic calculus, dominated by its rivalry with the US, currently assesses the EU as too internally fractured to exert meaningful pressure or leverage on Beijing, thereby closing any perceived ‘window of opportunity’ for a significant reset in relations, despite US actions.”