JBS Tells the US Beef Scene: “Rebuilding Is a Long‑Term Plan”—and the Prices Will Keep Jazzing Up
JBS, the global meatpacking behemoth, says the US cattle population is slowly getting back on track. Even though the company is trying to grow its herd again, experts estimate the next big wave of beef supply won’t make it to the shelves until at least 2027.
What the JBS CEO Weighs In With
Wesley Batista Filho, chief at JBS North America, told Bloomberg that the herd rebuild is already underway. “I’d say we’re moving forward,” he said, “and the economics and the weather make it easier.
Because fewer female cattle are being slaughtered, ranchers are keeping more cows for breeding—a classic sign that the rebuilding gig has kicked off.
Take Your Time – The Slow‑Mo Route To More Beef
- Batista compares the herd’s recovery to “taking the stairs, not the elevator.” (You know, nothing rushes that way.)
- Until the herd has grown, grocery stores may still see price spikes—and the reality is, ground beef prices will remain high through this year and into 2026.
- He’s clear: no meaningful jump in supply until 2027.
Bottom Line
JBS’s rebuild strategy is a long-haul investment. Consumers can kiss their lunch deals for now and get ready for the future. Trust us, no big leap forward—just a steady, slow climb to beef abundance.
Holy Cow: The Beef Cycle’s Mysterious Yo‑Yo
What the market’s been whispering (and shouting) about cattle
Just a few days back, Goldman‑Sachs analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson told their clients that the beef cycle is on the move — and not in a way that’s “plain old” market growth. The herd’s been on a roller coaster for a decade or so, and the latest dip could signal a comeback.
- 12‑year average cycle
From one low to the next, the herd’s trended about 12 years. - Trough dates — herd: 2014, packer margins: 2015.
- Current liquidation splash — started in 2019, herd at 86.7 million heads as of Jan 1 2025 (the lowest since the ’50s!).
- Rebuilding vibes — high calf prices + low feed costs = a recipe for a beef short‑stop.
- Near‑term supply squeeze — record weights are a bit of a safety net, but we’re watching the numbers closely.
ZeroHedge’s big question: “When will the beef cycle turn?”
The spice question that’s been popping up in office chats and, yes, meme threads, is basically: What’s the signal that the herd’s going to march back up? The analysts rolled that into a green‑light on their trading floor.
Because, let’s face it, every cow has a story. And now the story’s set to dramatically flip its plot a few times ago.
Rebuilding the Beef Empire—One Cut at a Time
Picture this: Four giants—JBS, Tyson Foods, Cargill, and National Beef—own a whopping 80% of the way American beef goes from barn to plate. That’s not just a big deal, it’s a modern‑day monopoly, and the critics are finally stepping up their voices.
Senator Hawley’s Wake‑Up Call
- At a Capitol Hill antitrust hearing, Senator Josh Hawley sounded the alarm: “We’re witnessing a meatpacking monopoly in full swing.”
- He urged lawmakers to boost competition or risk a future where a handful of companies dictate pricing and supply.
- “The winners? Those five big dogs.” The lashed‑off farmers and budget‑conscious shoppers are the ones who feel the pinch.
What’s the Plan for a Resilient Food Chain?
- Sprout regional micro‑plants: Think of them as the new backbone—smaller, more flexible, and less susceptible to supply chain hiccups.
- Redefine grocery habits: Ditch the mega‑supermarket model and start buying directly from local ranchers.
- Scope for local flavor: Every bite becomes a story of a farm and a family, not just a corporate logo.
Why It Matters to You
By championing micro‑plants and local buying, you put pressure on the big players to innovate—or risk losing your trust. Plus, you get to feel proud knowing you’re supporting the people who raise the cattle.
Takeaway
The beef industry is on the brink of a reform wave. It’s a chance to turn a corporate monopoly into a diversified, community‑focused network—one that’s brighter, bolder, and full of fresh flavors.
Putting the Cash Where It Matters
Remember the old story about pancakes in the valley? Well, it’s a bit different—think bucks instead of syrup—and the folks who own the land get the payment now, not those fancy Wall Street folks who’ve been pulling all the profit from the Heartland for years.
Why It Matters
When the money stays with local ranchers, the whole county feels the lift. Each dollar spent on feed, equipment, or a new tractor circulates in the community, keeping local businesses busy and families stable.
What’s Changing?
- Soldiers of the Soil – The new MAHA initiative (short for “Mid‑American Homestead Alliance”) is flipping the script.
- Less Wall Street; More Wrangler – Instead of sending cash over the border, it reroutes it straight back to the rancher’s own barn.
- Community Cashflow – Every purchase from a local supplier feeds back into the same ‘circular economy’ that feeds the overalls and cans of coffee.
Success Stories
Long before the digital age, the slow dance of trade had a rhythm. But today, the new MAHA movement is borrowing that same beat, just faster, enlisting values workers who can feel the whistle of the past and hear the click of a new future.
Takeaway
When the heartland pays its own beating heart, it doesn’t just hand over a few dollars—it ensures that every grain, every herd, and every chuckle echoes through the town’s streets. The financial pendulum is swapping sides, and it couldn’t come at a better time.