Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius: Still Trying to Keep the Bankroll Readers
When Jan Hatzius goes from “we’re in a recession” to “we’re not” faster than a TikTok trend, you know he’s at the edge of his sanity. This week, he’s churning out another research note that reads like a recipe for “CYA” (Cover Yourself Always) strategies: wave both hands in the air, sprinkle vague optimism, then toss in a hopeful nod to Trump’s wild tariff antics.
Why It Sounds Like a Mad Hatter’s Riddle
- He’s juggling the possibility that the free‑trade rule‑book might keep shaking the US economy, even as institutional PhDs chant that “no subsidy hacks allowed.”
- The narrative pits the fab “always‑ready‑to‑borrow‑for‑consumption” American consumer against slammed factory doors that say “Hey, get lost!”
- Hatzius admits Trump’s “tough‑on‑China” play could actually be hitting. And if it blows up, he warns of a brutal “macro‑locked‑in-weakness” blitz.
Dollar Drama and Gold Glee
In a twist that sounds like a broken anchor, Hatzius says the only real play is short the dollar and buy gold. A short‑dollar‑long‑gold approach feels less like a business plan and more like a songwriting choice for a song about financial anxiety.
The Takeaway: “Accurate Predictions? Rare. Humour, then? Usual.”
All in all, the note is one of those pieces where the headline’s a gripping promise, but the content leaves you scratching your head and wondering whether you just skimmed a cookbook for unexpected tariff recipes. And that’s exactly the tea we’re drinking out of some economist’s black‑coffee cups these days.