Big‑Game Trade Talk: Trump, India, and the Commercial Air Show
What’s the Deal?
During a buzzing CNBC interview, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dropped a hint: a trade deal is on the table with an unnamed country, just waiting for the green light from its prime minister and parliament. Guess who’s in the spotlight? India. Yup, with Apple shifting iPhone production to the sub‑continent and India stepping up as the world’s most populous nation, the stage is set.
Why India? Why Now?
- Apple’s pivot to Indian production.
- India’s sprint to overtake China’s GDP in the next 20 years.
- The country’s buzzing pipeline of Boeing orders.
- Trade deficit woes – a major complaint of former President Donald Trump.
In the absence of a deal, US tariffs could hit Indian exports up to 26% after Trump’s 90‑day pause ends in July. That’s a massive hike, so India’s bargaining chips include the big “airplane” plays.
Airplane Power Play
India is throwing diplomatic firepower by touting its Boeing orders: Air India, Akasa Air, and SpiceJet collectively placed a staggering $67 billion order for 590 planes. Think of it as India saying, “We’re practically buying your planes, so how about we lower those tariffs?”
While Air India has been pecking into the Android of Asian aviation, IndiGo – the India commuter king – has largely stuck with Airbus models. But that’s changing; the airline is eyeing Boeing 787s for select routes.
Even Vietnam is DLC-ing similar deals to sweeten its US relationship. It’s a classic “let’s buy your tech—now let’s lower my tariffs” dance.
Oil, Not Just Air
India’s not stopping at planes. The nation is also buying more US crude oil, trading its Russians at a time when China’s appetite dipped. In June, a record 11.2 million barrels imported, the biggest since August last year.
It’s a smart move: by buying more US oil, India hopes to use the commodity as a bargaining chip, nudging Trump to ease those 26% tariffs.
Market Conditions
Trade deficit widened in March: oil imports jumped >60%. The US paused the proposed tariff, waiting for negotiations. Meanwhile, Indian refiners (Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum) acquired millions of barrels during tender processes.
Bottom Line
With Trump’s tariffs on their front burner, India appears primed to strike a sweet deal. Airplane orders and oil purchases are not just transactions—they’re the footnotes in a bigger story about power, population, and a recipe for a trade win.
What’s Next?
Negotiations are slated to kick off in mid‑May, post‑Tariff pause. Stay tuned—because if this feels like a high‑stakes golf match, we’re looking at some serious swings.