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Can We Just Skip to Next Week?
What the Market’s Boring? A Behind‑the‑Scenes Look
Last week felt like a yawning stretch for Wall Street. Despite headlines screaming about the Fed’s future, banks kicking off earnings season, and AI/Data Center/Chip firms topping the positive chart, every index stayed almost flat. The Dow and Russell 2000 barely moved, the S&P gained a half‑point, and the Nasdaq 100 actually managed a quiet 1% uptick.
Yield Curves & Federal Open Market
Even with all the FOMC chatter, the 2‑year bond dipped less than 2 basis points and the 10‑year hovered just a beat higher. Not much reaction—just the kind of muted backlash we see when markets shrug off a single press statement.
Expect More “Out‑of‑the‑Box” Fed Stuff
We’ve been hinting that the next few weeks might bring some wild Fed concepts—think yield‑curve control, or other “extraordinary” measures recommended to the Fed, not by the Fed. If the administration starts pushing these ideas, it will definitely shake up the narrative.
Keeping the Report Lean & Clean
The T‑Report team is scattered across the country, so we’re tightening the analysis. Data flows are smooth, allowing us to stay compact while still keeping an eye on earnings surprises or odd headlines. The market’s treating everything as expected lately, but there’s still a chance something shifts gears.
What’s on the Radar This Week
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U.S. Treasury Deposits Customs & Optional Excise Taxes: last month’s “big day” saw a $20 billion haul. Will this month’s tide be higher or lower? We’ll see.
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Budget Surplus in June: while one‑time tweaks helped smooth the fiscal picture, tariff revenue remains a solid punch in the wallet.
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Job Data: last month was surprisingly strong, largely due to seasonal lifts in government hiring. Will the trend keep trucking? Forecast? Hard to say.
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Powell Press Conference: the actual FOMC decision will be there, but the key is the melodrama—and hopefully some enlightening insight.
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August 1st Tariff Deadline: talk of an actual cutoff is a bit fanciful. Yet if tariffs stay stubbornly high, markets might start to nervous, unless clear signs of an extension appear.
Sector‑and‑Company Play
We’re staying lean in on companies that thrive under deregulation, especially those pushing the U.S. back toward national production for national security. That’s the sweet spot for the next round of upgrades.
Why the Week After Next Seems More Juicy
Expect a real “exciting” spread in the market one week from now. The next week is probably going to be more of a snooze, but the following week might deliver that electrifying buzz everyone’s craving.
Disruption
Last Week’s Highlights
Disruption (ARKK) Packs a Punch
ARKK, the proxy for “disruption,” finished the week up 7%—not a small bump for a volatile market. Over the month it’s already climbed 16%, and the first three months show an eye‑popping 72% rise. It’s a good reminder that the trend isn’t just a fluke.
Crypto’s Flavor of the Month
The surge is no coincidence: the crypto space had another winning week, buoyed by the new “Genius Act” hitting the books. While other administrations might pause their crypto playbook after this law, the current revival is likely to push the U.S. into the lead, especially with the focus on USD‑based stablecoins.
Bitcoin Keeps Its Cool
Bitcoin ended the week almost flat—yet it maintains a 10% month‑over‑month gain. It’s a steady rock in a sea of rollercoasters.
Altcoins Take the Spotlight
- Ethereum exploded by almost 20% in a single week. As the legal landscape shifts, ETH is poised to become even more integral to the crypto ecosystem.
- NEW: The ETHA ETF (an Ethereum exchange‑traded fund) has doubled its shares outstanding since late May, highlighting growing investor appetite.
The Staking Shortfall
Those Ethereum‑focused ETFs are a bit of a sour note — they’re missing out on staking rewards, which means investors only see price swings, not the full earnings potential. That’s a call for more inventive products that let investors tap into Ethereum’s total return, not just its market moves.
Beyond the Token
With crypto’s bombastic push now behind us, the conversation now leans toward a sovereign wealth fund that seemed bright in early headlines but has faded. Re‑introducing that idea could strengthen the National Production for National Security theory, turning crypto from a trendy asset into a strategic national power.
Bottom Line
Tariff Talk: August 1st Mid‑Staged Drama
Bet your breath that the week is about to hit the “tariff buzzer.” With the August 1 deadline looming, trade folks are all ears—looking for a breakout of deals that could hush the whole gnarled situation. The buzz? The government’s been seen trimming the fat on those high‑level tariffs, saying it’s ready to nod along and extend concessions to key partners. That’s the tone on the table.
Was It a Mirage or Real Talk?
Remember the “Liberation Day” tariffs that got slapped on—only to be pulled back like a magic trick? That might mean the market’s reaction would be a mild hiss if the letter‑based tariffs ever wheels out. Last round, market pressure had the admin waving a quick “nope” and then going back to a version that felt like a reciprocal shuffle, whatever that looks like in numbers. If the markets weren’t behind, why would the bureau backtrack? The classic chicken‑egg question—nothing’s changed the core worry: “Fool Me Once, Not Again.”
Summer Preview: Quiet or Chaos?
- The week ahead promises predictability—almost boring.
- Unexpected headlines are going to give the quiet a twist, but the real fireworks likely sit in the week after.
- We’re gearing up for what will truly shake the summer scorecard.
A Side Gig: First Wrigley Game
Side note—caught my first baseball game at Wrigley. Felt like a fresh chapter: the crack of the bat and the roar of the crowd sent a chill that was as cool as a summer breeze. Pulling that back into the editorial mix means we’re mixing the mundane day‑to‑day with the big trade headlines—just the right amount of spectacle.
Looking Ahead
We’re riding the quiet summer wave and prepping for the next big move—maybe the market’s next price twist or a tariff twist. Stay tuned, and buckle up; the next week promises some real moves that could send everyone’s vacations into a carnival of hustle.