Tag: continued

Got a Whopper of a Surprise in the Sentiment Survey!

Picture this: February rolls around, the UMich Consumer Sentiment Survey drops in, and everyone’s jaws hit the floor. The inflation expectations jump from a modest 3.3% to a jaw‑dropping 4.3%. That’s not just a tiny bump—it’s a full-on roller coaster ride for the market.

What’s the Deal?

• Democrats are basically waving a red flag: they’re predicting 5.1% inflation – that’s almost hyper‑inflation territory.
• Republicans are reading the same graph upside‑down, claiming 0.0% inflation in the next year.
• The average cozily sits at 4.3%, but the story behind the numbers is wild. Some economist, likely a professor at UMich (whoever that is), might explain why the difference is so dramatic.

Why Stink in The Wall Street Fumes?

When the numbers popped out of the press, the market didn’t just titter – it skidded hard. Stocks nosedived, traders sold off huge chunks, and investors felt like they’d just been hit by a tidal wave of fear. The result? A few hundreds of billions of market cap vanished overnight.

It’s Not Just Numbers, It’s Emotion!

Imagine walking into a room where you just heard a ‘tick‑tick’ noise – that’s the market’s reaction when Fed tightening is on the horizon. The fear spreads through every investor, turning easy‑going portfolios into outright panics.

Bottom Line: The Numbers Are Crazy, The Market Is Crazy!

The takeaway? Even if politics tip the scales, investors can’t help but pick up the bartender’s whistle. Stay skeptical, stay sharp, and maybe keep a spare box of snacks handy – you never know when the next rally or crash will swing by.

NY Fed Inflation Expectations: The Big Chill (Not the Big Boom)

Remember that moment we bragged about the NY Fed’s inflation outlook not changing, while teasing the infamous Michigan data? Well, the Fed played out exactly as we predicted—flat, no headline‑shaking spike, and a little less than the median expert guess. A perfect “what I said, what they did” scenario.

Fast forward a month: nobody even bothered to poke the Michigan “data” again, because the latest NY Fed numbers promised a calm rundown of expectations. And sure enough, the survey kept things steady: one‑year inflation expectations nudged up to 3.1 % from 3.0 % a month prior, while the 3‑year and 5‑year forecasts stayed dead‑still.

Key Takeaways

• 1‑year inflation expectations: 3.1 % (now), 3.0 % (previous month).
• 3‑year and 5‑year expectations: unchanged.
• No sudden surge in inflation—just a gentle, polite uptick.

So, unless you’re looking for fireworks, that’s the headline: a smooth, almost unnoticed shift that proves our earlier claim was spot on.

Inflation Expectation Gap Gets Oil‑Dickens Size

Because of recent market movements, the difference between NY Fed’s one‑year inflation forecast and UMich’s is now a seriously wide gap. And if that wasn’t enough, UMich is about to release its fresh batch of “data” later this week, which, according to insiders, is packed with the usual mix of surprises and… let’s call them “creative insights.”

Fed Bites Back: Inflation Outlook Takes a Wild Ride

Picture this: the WSJ’s own Fed whisperer, Nick Timiraos (yes, the guy who basically gives the Fed a reality check), has had his cake and eaten it again—once more, he’s poked fun at the latest inflation buzz.

Why the U‑Mich Chill vs. NY Fed Hype?

When the University of Michigan pokes the inflation gauge, it’s showing a quick lift, especially for the one‑year horizon. But the New York Fed keeps the scene calm—no big jump in its folks’ price predictions.

Key Numbers that Huh?

• 1‑Year Ahead: Expectation nudged up by 0.1 full points to 3.1%
• 3‑Year & 5‑Year: Stayed stubbornly at 3.0%
• And while most say “Come on, the future’s getting pricier,” the NY Fed didn’t buy that hype. The disagreement slice actually shrank for the 1‑year view.

Where Does the Price Rocket Actually Go?

The NY Fed’s deep dive reveals a price sprint across key staples:

• Gas: Up 1.1pp to 3.7% (high since June 2024)
• Food: Up 0.5pp to 5.1% (high since May 2024)
• Medical Care: Up 0.4pp to 7.2%
• College Tuition: Up 1.0pp to 6.9%
• Rent: Up 0.7pp to 6.7%

The Bottom Line

While the U‑Mich’s numbers scream “fast‑track to the next decade,” the NY Fed’s quiet tone might just be the calm before the storm. Whether that sorted confusion or not, one thing’s clear: Americans are suddenly paying more chin‑wag for their day‑to‑day life—so grab that coffee, because the price tag is climbing.

Home Equity Outlook: A Tiny Upswing With a Big Story

Everyone’s been hearing that inflation is on the rise, but there’s a silver lining that even the most serious real‑estate folks can’t ignore. The “median home‑price growth” expectation has nudged up by just 0.1 percentage point, landing at 3.3 %. In plain English: people reckon they’ll build a little more equity in their homes over time.

What the Numbers Really Mean

• 3.3 % is the current level of optimism—households think their properties are creeping up on value.
• The change is mild, but it signals a subtle shift in confidence.
• All this, however, is part of a very steady pattern.

Stuck in a Tiny Loop Since August 2023

Since the summer of 2023, this metric has been sliding back and forth in a narrow band, oscillating between 3.0 % and 3.3 %. In other words, there’s no wild roller‑coaster—just a quiet, almost mundane, rise or fall that’s barely noticeable.

Bottom Line

Inflation worries? Check. But those returns on home equity are looking up, albeit slowly. It’s a cautious confidence that no one can ignore—especially if you hate seeing your mortgage balloon out of sight.

Money Talk: Your Wallet’s Mood Swing

Inflation ticked up just a smidge—think of it as a polite nudge rather than a full-on shove. But your bank account (or the lack of a solid budget) feels a whole lot less sunny.

What the Survey Says

• 27.4% – the biggest jump in a while: More families now expect a “somewhat or much” dip in their financial health in the next 12 months.
• That figure hits its highest level since late 2023, making pockets feel a tad tighter.
• If you’re chasing that “feel-good” feeling for next year, you’re probably not alone.

Why It Matters

When people look ahead and see their finances wobble, they’re more likely to cut back on the things that make life fun—be it that extra coffee on your morning commute or the weekend spa indulgence. The reality is: financial uncertainty can turn even the most adventurous plans into a cautious stroll.

Bottom Line

Inflation whispers, but the bigger, graver voice many hear is the “I’m not sure how to keep my wallet happy” echo. Keep that discussion alive, grab a slice of common sense, and tweak that budget so that the next year feels a bit brighter.

Job Worries on the Rise

In February the sense of unease among Americans felt like a sudden spike in a roller‑coaster ride.

What the Numbers Say

• Average probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will climb in one year: 39.4 %
• Jump from the previous month: 5.4 %
• Last high: September 2023

Why This Matters

That 39.4 % figure isn’t just a statistic—it tells us that a growing chunk of people think the job market will get tougher in the next year. When expectations like this climb, it can stir nerves across the workforce and shake the confidence of investors and business owners alike.

Bottom Line

The uptick in expectations signals that the economic chatter isn’t settling down just yet, and folks are preparing for a possible bump in unemployment. Let’s keep an eye on how this plays out as the year unfolds.

NY Fed Says Consumers Are Feeling the Cold Weather on their Wallets

Yesterday’s report from the New York Fed tells a clear tale: people are staring down a tougher year ahead, whether that’s in their own pockets, the job arena or even the stock market.

Job & Money Jitters

• Quit‑rate optimism? The share of folks willing to leave a job in the next 12 months dropped to 17.6% – the lowest jump‑in‑July 2023. That’s basically a red flag that the workforce is on the edge.
• Finding new work? If someone loses a gig, the odds of landing something within three months slipped below the long‑term average, and it’s not looking better.
• Credit & debts? More households – 14.56% versus last month’s 13.32% – think they won’t survive even a single “minimum” debt payment in the next quarter. Basically, the folks on the end of the line are becoming a little more nervous.

Stock Market Weakness

Even the stock world feels the chill. The expected chance that stock prices will be higher a year from now fell to just 37% – the lowest since December 2023.

On the bright side, a tiny silver lining

The probability that anyone will lose their job in the next year slipped to 14.1% – a half‑point dip from January when it had hit a 2.3% peak (last July’s bump).

All in all, the new numbers paint a picture of a consumer crowd that’s increasingly weary – from the job market to the credit crunch, to the possibility of turning a year’s share into a gloomy outcome. The forecast stays shaky, signalling that people are in for a bumpy ride ahead.

Latest Survey Shakes Up Labor & Household Finance

Labor Market Snapshot

• Income expectations stay steady: A one‑year outlook on earnings growth sat at 3.0% in February, comfortably nudging between the tight 2.7%–3.0% band that’s been reigning since the start of 2024.
• Unemployment fears spike: The average chance that the U.S. unemployment rate will tick up one year from now climbed a whopping 5.4 percentage points to 39.4%. That’s the highest since September 2023 and it’s a drop across all ages, education levels, and income brackets—so everyone’s looking a little worried.
• Job loss feels less likely: The collective guess that you’ll lose your job in the next 12 months dipped a hair to 14.1%, a tiny 0.1 pp drop.
• Quitting jitters shrink: People are less inclined to hand in their resignation, with the expected quit rate falling 2.3 pp to 17.6%—the lowest since July 2023. This drop spreads across education and income groups.
• Job hunting dampens a bit: If you were to lose your gig now, the chance you’d snag a new one in the next three months is down 0.3 pp to 51.2%, still lying below its 12‑month average of 52.5%.

Household Finance Pulse

• Income outlook slightly up: Middle‑households now expect a 3.1% growth in earnings—up just 0.1 pp from last month—while the trend has been nestled between 2.9% and 3.3% since January 2023.
• Spending sees a modest boost: Average expectations for household spending arced up 0.6 pp to rise to 5.0%, nudging just over the trailing 12‑month average of 4.9%. This lift was felt broadly, but hits hardest for folks with only a high‑school diploma or under $50k in yearly household income.
• Credit climate looks a bit bleak: More households feel credit is getting tougher compared to a year ago, and fewer feel it’s getting easier. Expectations for the first time since June 2024 see a jump to 46.7% for those who think a year from now the credit game will be harder.
• Debt dodging on the rise: The perceived odds of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months climbed 1.3 pp to 14.6%—the highest since April 2020. This uptick is strongest among non‑college grads and those under 40.
• Tax outlook swings a bit higher: Those expecting a one‑year change in taxes at current incomes nudged up 0.2 pp to 3.4%.
• Government debt hopes dip: The expected growth in government debt twenty‑four months from now fell 1.0 pp to 5.0%, the lowest stumble since July 2017.
• Saving rates look a tad optimistic: The belief that the average interest rate on savings accounts will rise over the next 12 months rises 0.4 pp to 25.4%.
• Financial future gets gloomy: While today’s financial picture remains largely unchanged, a future‑glimpse of worse financial health jumps to a high of 27.4%, the best since November 2023.
• Stock sentiment slides: The probability that U.S. stock prices will rise in a year shrank 3.3 pp to 37.0%, the lowest level seen since December 2023.

For the full scoop, dive into the complete survey.