Middle Eastern Economies: From Stuck to Thriving… or Just Stuck
Stuck in a Time Warp
The poor nations of the Middle East have been doing a dance with their economies for decades—turn around, spin around, and almost forget the steps. Meanwhile, folks in Southeast Asia were building factories, creating jobs, and pulling millions out of poverty. Not so much in our neighborhood, though, where governments have grown into giant bureaucratic sharks, bureaucracy piling up like a tower of pancakes, and a handful of elites just hunting for rent.
Trump’s Tariff Take‑out
When President Trump decided to tear up the global trading system with a whirlwind of tariffs, the reaction here was anything but one‑size‑fits‑all. “We’ve been through this circus before,” an Egyptian paper plant worker, stepping back from the spotlight, told Middle East Eye. “It’s no surprise. We’re already in the same boat as always.”
But there’s a twist—
- More Costly Everywhere Else – Because most other places just got pricier, we might actually have a sliver of advantage.
- Trap of the Elites – The “rent‑seeking” class is still vogue, resembling a circus ringmaster lining up pit bulls for a high‑pay league.
- Red Tape Redefined – Every new regulation feels like a giant maze through which the public is forced to wander.
Why It Matters
For someone in a small paper mill, these tariffs feel less like a threat and more like a chance. The world’s trade is a giant market—if the rest of the globe ups their prices, then a place like Egypt can have a little room to breathe and trade at a fender‑bender. It’s a bit like being in a dramatic soap‑opera, yet feeling like you’re finally flipping the script.
In Summary
Middle Eastern countries are no strangers to economic upheaval. Their experiences, a constant reminder of how bureaucratic layers and rent‑seeking elites can stall progress, are now intersected with a global tariff wave. While some see it as another storm, insiders wonder if this could somehow be their lucky break—though they are still hoping the paper industry doesn’t run out of modern machinery.
Trump’s Tariff Tornado: Middle East’s Unexpected Game Plan
When President Trump rolled out those bold 46‑% and 49‑% tariffs on Vietnam and Cambodia, it felt a bit like a slap on the wallet—but not everyone was wearing an expensive sword. For a handful of Middle Eastern economies, the move opened a lane that could lead to a brand‑new turf war in low‑skill manufacturing.
Egypt: From Inflation Woes to a Slim Chance
- Low Tariff Badge: Egypt landed a modest 10 % tariff—the lowest bracket of all.
- Strip‑Down Economy: A decade of inflation and currency devaluation has turned raw‑material imports into a pain‑staking restaurant bill.
- Power Cuts: Frequent electricity rationing has left factories humming on extra batteries.
- Export Mix: 51 % of its US exports are garments and textiles; iron & steel lags at a fraction.
- Opportunity Roadmap: If Egypt can underprice Southeast Asia on simple, low‑investment jobs like tailor‑made clothing, Trump’s tariffs might just open a window.
“Trump has just made it easier for Egypt, with all our corruption and more expensive labor costs to compete with Asia,” one savvy paper manufacturer told Middle East Eye. It’s a gamble, but when the global supply chain rechecks its agenda, maybe the old minting of cotton and leather could shine again.
Jordan: A Tiny Pocket The Big Scoop
- FTA With the US: Jordan’s $5.4 bn trade footprint is minuscule for Wall Street but huge for the local market.
- 5‑Year Growth: The UK’s consumer tax play might lean Jordan’s imports higher by 15 % in 2024.
- Potash Power: Amid Ukraine’s drought, Jordan squeezes a niche selling fertiliser to America.
- Victory at the Flex: Petra Engineering—think HVAC wonders—has carved out a niche.
“For the US, Jordanian exports are meaningless, but if these tariffs continue, we will be affected,” CFO Nael al‑Husami explained.
Morocco: The New Car‑Catcher of Africa
Alas, Morocco is itching to swivel supply chains toward the Middle East. The country is already Africa’s best car‑maker, and a 10 % tariff might have European businesses looking over its shoulder.
What’s Behind This Tariff Shuffle?
Trump’s approach felt like a club slamming a coin into a beam—he gauged the tariff based on the gap between the US’s import bills and export receipts. Low‑cost producers in Southeast Asia, who have chased the numbers like a true hustler, got the broadest brunt of the hit.
The Middle East now stocks a 10 % baseline tariff on exports, rising to 41 % for Syria or 39 % for Iraq. Adding the reciprocal angles, the net effect is perplexing. Yet for small economies, the key notion is: control the price, even if the rhythm changes.
Bottom Line: A New “Storm” is Brewing—Will You Ride the Wave?
With ordinary manufacturing adjusted by modern technology, this could be the region’s best chance to leapfrog design and export requirements that once drew massive bills. The question isn’t whether tariffs will be an outright disaster, but whether tapping the shifting water will bring a tide above the usual drag.