Exploring the Art of Hiding in Plain Sight
Author: David Stockman (InternationalMan.com)
Why It Matters
Ever felt like you’re invisible in a crowded room? For some, mastering the subtle art of staying out of sight becomes a necessity, not just a talent.
Key Strategies
- Blend In: Learn to soak up the background noise so you can slip through without causing a stir.
- Signal Snooping: Keep your “presence” low—no flashing lights, no flashy colors.
- Mind the Silence: A quiet pause can grab attention—and then you’re already gone.
Humorous Takeaway
Imagine a cat walking into a room full of peacocks— it’s the classic “hiding in plain sight” move, and you? Well, you’re basically the next-level stealth pro.
So next time you spot someone quietly slipping around the corner, remember it’s all about staying calm, low-key, and utterly invisible.
Why America’s Manufacturing Engine Has Tottered—And Why It Matters
The story of the U.S. industrial production index is a bit like a roller‑coaster that’s stuck on the flat part.
From High‑Flying to Ground‑Zero
- Between 1954 and 2007, the index recorded a steady 3.3% annual jump. That was the era of booming factories, rapid expansion of power plants, and fishing the deep‑sea freight routes for gold.
- Since then, the growth rate has stalled at a negligible 0.10% per year. In plain English: the factory floor has been on a Yoyo between up and down for 17 years.
- From a peak in Q4 2007 to now, the industry has lost about 97% of its punch.
Reality Check: The Numbers That Matter
When June’s industrial production bump came out – a tiny uptick – it was doused as a sign of economic vigor. That is a bit like celebrating a souffle that’s just barely risen. The long‑term trend, however, screams the opposite: the engine is sputtering.
Why a Shrinking Workforce and Rising Health‑Care Costs Don’t Add Up
We live in a world where the economy depends on:
- Educating fewer children (the less labor talent enters the workforce)
- Increasing obesity rates that drain public health budgets
- Providing adult diapers for more generational seniors
With fewer hands on the assembly line and medicine bills soaking up the cash, it’s tough to keep the wheels turning.
The Monthly Roller‑Coaster
Since June 2021, the industrial production index has been negative or flat in less than half the months. Imagine a child in the “Mother May I?” game: one step forward, one back, repeating.
In the big picture, that’s not the sign of a “strong” economy. It’s a whisper that the industrial core is flailing.
Takeaway
Miraculously on the news cycle, a tiny bump can be heralded as an economic boom. In truth, America’s manufacturing base is on a downward slide. And that reality has to spoil any confidence otherwise. So next time you hear “great” about U.S. production, remember: the industry is more like a leaky boat than a tech‑savvy super‑liner.
Why U.S. Goods Production Was Basically a “Borrowed” Experience
Picture this: From the tail end of 2007 all the way into the present, Americans have been munching on more goods than our factories could ever produce. The numbers don’t lie.
The Tale of Two Numbers
- Cumulative real consumption of goods (think durable stuff like cars and appliances plus everyday items) jumped a staggering 62 %.
- Meanwhile, domestic industrial output – the actual production inside the U.S. – barely budged, rising just 1.4 %.
So what’s going on? Think of it like this: If you’re buying a huge feast but have only a tiny kitchen, you’ll have to order the banquet from somewhere else. That’s exactly what’s happening with U.S. goods consumption.
The Import Overdrive
- Imports filled the vast gap between consumption and domestic production.
- Over the past 17 years, the growth in goods consumption has largely come from foreign sources.
- These imports were financed by significant current account deficits, meaning Americans have been spending more on foreign goods than they are earning from exporting them.
Bottom line: The U.S. has been living large, fueled by a generous trade‑deficit buffet. That’s why the consumption boom feels more like a borrowed joyride than a home‑grown triumph.
When Debt Takes the Fast Lane
Picture this: the U.S. dollar’s suitcase keeps filling up faster than the IKEA sales at a holiday sale. If you kick back and look at the numbers, you’ll see that the mystery of the growing pile of debt isn’t a result of the Washington-based ministries miscounting their pennies.
Quick Back‑Takes of the Flame‑throwing Expansion
- 1954‑2007: The Treasury’s debt crept up about 6.5 % a year, while the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet nudged in at around 5.6 %.
- 2007‑2024: Those figures suddenly taken a rocket boost, the Treasury debt climbing at an astonishing 10.7 % an year, and the Fed’s balance sheet leaping ahead at roughly 13.3 %.
What’s With the Slow‑Mo Industrial Production?
Even though the Fed has been pumping out money faster than a vending machine on steroids, the heart of the economy—industrial production—has been stuck in a dead‑march by only 0.1 % per annum since 2007.
Bottom line: the extra capital is finding routes that don’t go straight to the assembly line on Main Street; instead, it’s finding a way into other corners of the financial world.
What’s Really Happening to the Economy?
Picture this: since the last quarter of 2007, the NASDAQ‑100 has skyrocketed ten‑fold—actually 86‑fold! Against that backdrop, the richest 1 % of American households have seen their net worth jump from $18.9 trillion to a staggering $49.4 trillion.
The Bottom Line on Jobs and Production
Yes, industrial production has been pretty much stuck in neutral. Yet, the top 1.35 million U.S. families suddenly feel like they’ve hit the jackpot, their wealth swelling by nearly $31 trillion.
Wall Street’s Squabble Over “Fed Independence”
- Wall Street gurus are shouting at the President over his threat to let the Fed hit President Powell, citing the institution’s “sacrosanct independence.”
- The Latin phrase “cui bono” rings true: Who really wins from this supposed independence? Not the average American on Main Street.
The Federal Reserve isn’t a democratic tanger for the people nor a pure free‑market agency; in fact, it’s a playground for the Wall Street traders and gamblers who carve their fortunes out of its halls.
Donald’s Monetary Mayhem
Sure, the President’s grasp of monetary policy is… questionable, to say the least. But his impending frontal assault on that rogue institution housed in the Eccles Building might be the only shot at curbing its destructive reign.
Wake‑up Call for Dollar‑Drowning America
Data is crystal‑clear: Washington’s debt‑driven “stimulus” regime is filling the coffers of Wall Street while hollowing out Main Street. The glitz of prosperity is a smokescreen that masks real industrial and monetary decline.
Cracks are widening. The next wave could be seismic—and most Americans are far from ready.
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