According to the data‑savvy analyst Harry Enten—who’s arguably the only sane voice on CNN—JD Vance is practically guaranteed to dodge the crazy crowd and clinch the GOP nomination.
Why Vance Is the Meme‑Machine
Statistical Rock: Enten says Vance’s numbers line up like a well‑stacked deck of cards—no surprises.
Old‑School Squash: He’s the man who doesn’t get lost shouting on TDS—where the live‑action fumbles the rest of us.
Now or Never: 2028’s the notch on the timeline: Vance is dialing in, and the field is still looking for an answer.
“Shoe in” Explained
When people call him the “shoe in”, they mean he’s a step ahead, a guaranteed winner in the race. That’s not just jazz hand—it’s real data that says the odds are high.
Takeaway
If you’re playing the 2028 GOP lottery, you might want to treat JD Vance as the one person you’re pretty sure the money’s going to hit hard on, say nothing but the proven numbers.—And remember, by the time the dust settles, you’ll probably be cheering without feeling the need to shout into the TDS ruckus.
JD Vance: The Unlikely Rise of an Ohio‑Born Maverick
When Hollywood documentary Wackiest Polls of the Century came out, no one predicted JD Vance would sprint ahead on the GOP ballot. But according to Harry Enten, the polling gods are pointing fingers in his direction.
Early Numbers, Later Victory?
Vance leads the pack with 40 % in the early GOP race.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis sits ducking in the single‑digits.
Donald Trump Jr. is also stuck around 7 %.
Enten taps a classic quip from Larry David: “Pretty, pretty good!” that’s how he describes Vance’s odds.
History’s Candlelight Verdict
Using data from 1980 onward, Enten points out that 63 % of early poll leaders actually become the nominee—all 5 recent Southern‑American vice presidents (Nixon, Humphrey, Bush Sr., Gore, Harris) won the race. That’s a shy 95 % whenever President Trump backs a candidate.
“If Trump throws his weight behind Vance, you can expect the 2028 GOP field to crumble—this is a closing curtain.”
The Trump Connection
Trump himself announced Tuesday that Vance and Marco Rubio could form a “weight‑lifting duo” for the 2028 ticket. The murmur on social media: “MAGA’s heir apparent? JD Vance. The VP? Maybe Rubio.” Excerpts from Twitter are mostly just bold screenshots—no direct links allowed.
Why the Buzz Is Real
Enten’s formula is simple:
Early poll leader ⇒ >50 % chance of nominating.
Arguably, Vance’s 40 % plus the Trump endorsement pushes the probability close to the 95‑% threshold.
Any former vice‑presidential run is a “blue‑print” for success.
Bottom Line
It’s 2025 in the headlines: JD Vance’s early surge, a heavy‑handed Trump endorsement, and a swing at the GOP top spot—all signal a high likelihood that Vance will carry the flag into the 2028 primaries. In the world of politics, the numbers are telling, and the story is already writing itself.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the White House has plenty of tools at its disposal to implement President Donald Trump’s global tariffs if the Supreme Court does not uphold his use of a 1977 emergency powers law.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters during a briefing at the White House on April 29, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled 7–4 on Aug. 29 against the current administration’s decision to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as justification for levies on foreign goods unveiled in April. The court’s decision does not take effect until Oct. 14, allowing the White House ample time to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.
The IEEPA grants the president broad authority to regulate international economic transactions—regulating imports and exports, freezing foreign assets, or halting financial transactions—after declaring a national emergency.
In a Labor Day interview with Reuters, Bessent stated that while he is confident the high court will uphold the president’s reciprocal tariff agenda, the administration has various options available.
“I’m confident the Supreme Court … will uphold the president’s authority to use IEEPA. And there are lots of other authorities that can be used—not as efficient, not as powerful,” Bessent said.
He referred to Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930, also known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. It contains a trade provision that authorizes the president to impose new tariffs or additional duties of up to 50 percent on foreign products entering the United States for a period of five months if they are determined to threaten domestic commerce.
Bessent said he is planning a legal brief for the U.S. Solicitor General to highlight the urgency of stopping the flow of fentanyl into the country. Pointing to the approximately 70,000 fentanyl-linked deaths per year in the United States, he questioned what would be considered an emergency.
“If this is not a national emergency, what is?“ he said. ”When can you use IEEPA if not for fentanyl?”
The senior administration official also intends to argue that persistent trade imbalances will ultimately reach a critical threshold, triggering more immense consequences for the U.S. economy.
“We’ve had these trade deficits for years, but they keep getting bigger and bigger,” he said. “We are approaching a tipping point … so preventing a calamity is an emergency.”
The last time the United States registered a trade surplus was in 1975.
In July, the U.S. goods trade deficit widened by $18.7 billion to $103.6 billion, the largest gap in four months. Imports rose by more than 7 percent to $281.5 billion while exports dipped 0.1 percent to $178 billion.
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields popped on Sept. 2, driven by concerns that the federal government will be forced to repay tariff income and forego potentially trillions of dollars in tariff revenues.
Yields on the 20- and 30-year government bonds surged about 5 basis points to around 4.92 percent and 4.98 percent, respectively.
“Global trading partners will no doubt find it premature to be celebrating just yet, but we’ll be interested in seeing whether the Treasury market comes under any further pressure if the US has to hand back already received tariff revenues,” ING economists said in a Sept. 1 note.
In this fiscal year, the federal government has collected $183.1 billion in tariff revenues, including $31 billion in August.
Wall Street in New York City on April 4, 2025. Samira Bouaou/The Epoch Times
Looking ahead, according to projections from the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, tariff revenues could rise to as much as $50 billion per month, or 1.5 percent of GDP, “before declining some as supply chains adjust.”
The Yale Budget Lab estimates the effective U.S. tariff rate is 18.6 percent, the highest since 1933.
‘Performative’ Relationships
Bessent also shrugged off the apparent cordial relations between China, India, and Russia at the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization as “performative.”
“It’s more of the same,” Bessent said, adding that Beijing and New Delhi are “fueling the Russian war machine.”
“I think at a point we and the allies are going to step up,” he said.
Last week, the president’s additional 25 percent tariff on India went into effect, bringing the total import duty to 50 percent on many imports entering the United States. The administration doubled down on punitive levies over India’s enormous purchases of Russian crude oil.
Trump, writing in a Sept. 1 Truth Social post, stated that India has offered to reduce its tariffs to zero percent.
“India buys most of its oil and military products from Russia, very little from the U.S.,” Trump said. “They have now offered to cut their tariffs to nothing, but it’s getting late. They should have done so years ago. Just some simple facts for people to ponder!”
He noted that the United States does “very little business with India, but they do a tremendous amount of business with us.”
According to the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office, the U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.8 billion last year, up 5.9 percent from 2023.
India, the only nation slapped with secondary tariffs for Russian oil purchases, has been surpassed by China as the world’s largest buyer of discounted petroleum products from Moscow.
Bessent defended the administration’s decision not to impose secondary tariffs on Beijing. In an Aug. 19 interview with CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Bessent stated that China was already the Russian energy sector’s client.
“China importing it is suboptimal,” Bessent said. “But if you go back and look pre-2022, pre-invasion, 13 percent of China’s oil was already coming from Russia. Now it’s 16 [percent]. So, China has a diversified input of their oil.”
India, on the other hand, dramatically accelerated its purchasing following the breakout of the war in Ukraine, Bessent noted.
In 2021, India imported $2.31 billion of Russian crude oil, according to United Nations COMTRADE data. By 2024, imports surged to almost $53 billion.
The tariff pause between the United States and China, meanwhile, was extended last month until Nov. 10.
Gold Futures Hit Record High After U.S. Tariff Surprise
Yesterday’s market buzz: the US rolled out tariffs on imports of one‑kilogram gold bars, kicking the futures market into a new record‑setting stratosphere.
What Happened?
The movement came when investors, slightly shocked, noticed that the Coast Guard’s trade restrictions had now slotted a hefty tariff on every kilo of gold that tries to cross into the U.S. market.
Why Investors Were Upset (and Then Cheerful)
Shock Factor: “Is the U.S. seriously freaking out over gold kilos?” — some traders’ first thought.
Supply Tension: With the tariffs in place, supply may tighten, pushing prices upward.
Future Gains: Futures futures indeed sprinted to an all‑time high this past Friday.
Looking Deeper
It’s basically a classic “tariff‑driven scarcity” scenario: less gold available in the U.S. will likely cause traders to pound the market’s futures, leading to a record price spike. The trickier part? Whether regulators’ll pull back this policy or keep it for longer.
Bottom Line
Whether you’re a gold‑hound or a casual investor, the key takeaway: tariffs on even the tiniest gold weight can have a massive ripple effect on the futures market. So keep an eye on policy changes—they’re the new market beat, and they’re surprisingly dramatic.
Gold’s New Record: Tariffs Drive Prices Through the Roof
Just when you thought gold was already up to the sky, traders hit the highway brakes and accelerated into the record high that yesterday’s news sprinted into the market.
The Tariff Twist
Trump’s surprise: A newly revealed Customs letter named one‑kilogram and 100‑ounce bars as tariff targets.
Expectation turned upside down: Investors had assumed those gold giants would fly under the tariff radar. Spoiler: they didn’t.
Price reaction: Futures surged 0.9% to $3,484.60 an ounce — a new all‑time peak at $3,534.10.
Why the Market’s Bouncing
When Washington lifted broad gold duties in April, it sent a relief signal. Prices sagged, but now the opposite agenda is in effect: import taxes are tightening. Traders are switching gears, snapping up cheaper foreign gold and pushing it into U.S. portfolios to hedge against the steep new tariffs.
Top Takeaway: Gold as a Safe‑Haven
As global uncertainties swirl, gold’s stable value makes it the go‑to for risk‑averse investors. Even when currencies wobble, gold keeps its footing.
Gold’s Swiss Tug‑of‑War
Switzerland is the biggest precious‑metal exporter to the U.S. – $61.5 bn in the last twelve months.
Now facing a 39% tariff, Swiss leaders flew to Washington in hopes of dialing it back.
Despite this, pharma exports remain tariff‑free, thanks to a protective carve‑out.
Future Forecast
Financial analysts predict a bullish line to the $4,000 mark, fuelled by gold’s safe‑haven reputation and a sagging dollar in 2025. “Switzerland feels the sting,” notes AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson.
Bottom line: with tariffs tightening, the price of gold is not just climbing — it’s staking out a new territory where investors can find sanctuary amid chaos.
Paytm’s Big Breakthrough: The RBI’s Green Light Finally Comes
After months of digging for a license and a roller‑coaster of regulatory snags, Indian fintech giant Paytm has finally won the in‑principle nod from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The approval unlocks its Payment Services unit as an online payment aggregator, letting it officially take on merchants and rake in those sweet, sweet transaction fees.
Where It Got Stuck
November 2022 setback: Paytm was denied its payment aggregator license because of its staking ties with a land‑bordering country (the dreaded “border” rule). The answer? No new merchants, no fresh revenue streams.
No impact claim: At the time, the pay‑and‑play business said the blockage didn’t seriously dent its numbers. Still, the CEO, Vijay Shekhar Sharma, was already planning a re‑application at last year’s AGM.
Banking woes: The RBI also shut down Paytm Payments Bank’s ability to accept new deposits and offer credit. Paytm re‑emerged by partnering with Axis, HDFC, SBI, and Yes Bank—turning them into its payment backbone.
What the New License Means
With the RBI’s blessing, Paytm can now do the heavy lifting for merchants. That includes:
Accepting cards, net banking, and UPI—the full spectrum of India’s payment options.
No more restrictions on onboarding new online merchants—the central bank’s 2022 hold‑up is lifted.
Chinese Investor Exit Style
Just a week ago, China’s Ant Group sold all its remaining 5.8% slice of Paytm for $454 million. This exit follows a 2023 deal where Ant Financial off‑loaded 10.3% to Sharma for nothing cash‑wise, netting $628 million.
Keep Your Eyes on the Audit
The RBI isn’t leaving Paytm to dance on the license indefinitely. It’s mandated to run a full system audit, including a cybersecurity review, and file the results within six months. Failing to do so? The approval lapses. Also, keep in mind—this license covers only online payment services.
Bottom Line
What once seemed like a legal gray‑zone is now a clear green lane for Paytm. The fintech can propel its merchants forward, reuse an entire payment stack, and keep its sizzling revenue engines running—all while steering clear of cross‑border regulatory nightmares.
Tech and VC heavyweights join the Disrupt 2025 agenda
Netflix, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Sequoia Capital, Elad Gil — just a few of the heavy hitters joining the Disrupt 2025 agenda. They’re here to deliver the insights that fuel startup growth and sharpen your edge. Don’t miss the 20th anniversary of TechCrunch Disrupt, and a chance to learn from the top voices in tech — grab your ticket now and save up to $600+ before prices rise.
Tech and VC heavyweights join the Disrupt 2025 agenda
Netflix, ElevenLabs, Wayve, Sequoia Capital — just a few of the heavy hitters joining the Disrupt 2025 agenda. They’re here to deliver the insights that fuel startup growth and sharpen your edge. Don’t miss the 20th anniversary of TechCrunch Disrupt, and a chance to learn from the top voices in tech — grab your ticket now and save up to $675 before prices rise.
Play the Chords: Paytm’s Fresh Groove on India’s UPI Stage
Picture this: the digital wizard Paytm has swapped its backstage status for a front‑row seat—moving from a supporting role to a headline act that’s taking the reins of its entire ecosystem. In a nutshell, it’s now in business with its own offline “sound boxes” and online payment gateway—a one‑stop shop that means one less middle‑man for the Indian fin‑tech. Osborne Saldanha, a seasoned fintech investor, told TechCrunch that this upgrade is a game‑changer.
Standing Strong in the UPI Crowd
Paytm sits at third place, trailing behind PhonePe (owned by Walmart) and Google Pay.
In June, it captured 6.9% of 18.4 billion UPI transactions and 5.6% of the money moved—the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) confirmed.
That totals to 1.27 billion UPI moves worth ₹1.34 trillion—or roughly $15 billion.
While the top‑two giants claim over 82% of the market this month, Paytm has carved out its own niche by wrapping a bundle of services around its users and merchants alike.
The Multi‑Faceted Paytm Playbook
From offline merchant payments backed by hardware & software suites to the robust service layers, Paytm’s solutions are designed to be plug‑and‑play.
Reality check: it’s also going all‑in on credit and lending, turning wherever folks need cash into a gold mine of opportunities.
Profit Pulse: Rattle a Few Numbers
Take a quick pop‑chart (yes, we’re more graphic than you expected):
Net income for Q1 FY 2026 settles at ₹1.23 billion—about $14 million—after last year’s loss slapped at the same period.
Revenue skyrocketed 28% year‑over‑year to $224 million.
Contribution margin jumped from 50% to 60%—a sign of sharpening edges.
Talk about a triumphant comeback: shares are up a solid 13.25% YTD in 2025, signaling market confidence creeping back after a regulatory roller‑coaster. As of Wednesday, the stock closed at ₹1,118.5 (≈$13) right before the regulatory green light rang.
We’re Listening – Your Two‑Minute Survey
Curious how we’re doing? Drop the insights, bonus points for humor, and maybe—just maybe—win a shiny prize in the process. Your feedback helps us grow and keeps the conversation fresh.